The Third Horseman and parallels to the "Bread Basket of Europe" and Inflation
A Black horse? Black Sea Grain Initiative: The current crisis of affordability may turn into a crisis of availability for over 40+ million people
(source: Public Domain)1
Wheat, Barley, Oil, and Wine
Wheat and barley were domesticated thousands of years ago for humans and livestock as a vital source of nutrition.2 In ancient Israel, the planting and harvest for these crops were listed in Deuteronomy along with other crops including olive trees and vines for oil and wine.
8 a land of wheat and barley, of vines and fig trees and pomegranates, a land of olive oil and honey; (Deuteronomy 8:8, NASB1995)3
Throughout the Middle East, modern-day Turkey and Iran rely upon the import of wheat and barley for their population. Turkey and Iran have an arid climate and seasonal droughts which prevented enough agricultural production for their population, especially in 2021. Therefore they rely upon imports to sustain their population.4
Grain Deal: A Matter of Life and Death
Since July 2022, when the United Nations and Turkey brokered the grain deal with Russia, Ukraine has been able to export about 11 million tons of wheat, corn, sunflower oil, barley, and other commodities, thereby mitigating the threat of famine that 47 million people in import-dependent countries are facing due to the war’s disruption of food shipments.
UN data indicates that the grain deal has not fully restored Ukraine’s exports to the level at which they were before the Russian invasion. However, it did potentially double the country’s food exports. According to the UN, the deal has already prevented roughly 100 million people around the world from falling into extreme poverty. And UN Secretary-General António Guterres has said that given Ukraine’s critical role in the global food supply chain, without a grain deal in effect, “the current crisis of affordability will turn into a crisis of availability.”5
Revelation 6: Supply and Demand
When the last living Apostle John was banished by the Roman Emporer to the island of Patmos off the coast of modern-day Turkey, he was directed by Jesus to write to the seven churches of Ephesus, Smyrna, Pergamum, Thyatira, Sardis, Philadelphia, and Laodicea.
Jesus gave the Apostle John the following Third Seal vision, a black horseman, which is often interpreted as bringing a famine event and the rider holds a scale or in Greek a zygós (interpreted as a scale, balance, or yoke)6 representing trade and commerce.
v5 When He broke the third seal, I heard the third living creature saying, “Come.” I looked, and behold, a black horse;
and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand.
v6 And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying,
“A quart of wheat for a denarius, and
three quarts of barley for a denarius; and
do not damage the oil and the wine.” (Revelation 6:5-6, NASB1995)7
How much is a denarius worth? In Matthew 20:2 a laborer earns one denarius for a day’s wage as a benchmark.
When he had agreed with the laborers for a denarius for the day, he sent them into his vineyard. Matthew 20:2 (NASB1995)
If we use the benchmark of a denarius equals 1 day’s wage, then 1 quart of wheat and three quarts of barley cost a day’s wage. Obviously, in modern-times wages have changed and wages fluctuate based upon the industry and location. The key warning is that a drastic rise in crucial food costs is increasing rapidly. What could cause a sudden rise in wheat and barley and why only wheat and barley and not oil and wine?
Supply and demand?
The wheat and barley increased in price because the supply decreased yet the demand was still very high because of a matter of life or death for survival. While oil and wine, though important, were not as crucial in the event of famine.
Ukraine: “Bread Basket”
In total, approximately 57 percent of Ukraine is typically cultivated which makes it one of the most cultivated countries in the world next to India (see dark green below). As a comparison, the United States only cultivated 17 percent of its land.
(source: Financial Times)8
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February [2022], the major grain exporter’s primary export routes via the Black Sea ports were blocked, forcing Ukraine exporters to shift to other modes of transportation such as truck, rail, and barge. Despite these efforts, Ukraine accumulated large stocks of corn, wheat, sunflower seed, and barley.
On July 22, a joint agreement involving Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and United Nations created the Black Sea Grain Initiative which has enabled grain to resume flowing from three Ukrainian ports to foreign markets. The original agreement is for 120 days through November 19, subject to extension. The corridor has enabled Ukraine to export more than 10 million tons of grains and oilseeds through Black Sea ports, including 4.3 million tons of corn, 2.9 million tons of wheat, and 400,000 tons of barley.9
This deal prevented millions from starvation, however as shown below the exports are still lower than in prior years. Therefore supply and demand economics begin to impact food costs. In the USDA November 2022 chart shown, the wheat and barley exports (in green and blue, respectively) are less than half of the exports in 2021.
Global Inflation
Furthermore, countries shown below in dark maroon are upwards of 50% inflation in 2022.
Countries experiencing conflict, upheaval or major economic problems in 2022 are expected to see inflation rates far above the global average of 8.8 percent. Among them are Venezuela, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Turkey and Argentina.10
(Source: Statistica)11
G20: Turkey’s Inflation Soars
The G20 countries are experiencing soaring inflation rates.
As an example, Turkey’s inflation grew from 19.3% to 83.5% in approximately one year.
(source: Investor Monitor)
(source: Trading Economics)12
On November 3rd, 2022, Turkey’s inflation tops 85% as noted by N. Turak on CNBC.
Food prices were 99% higher than the same period last year, housing rose by 85% and transport was up 117%, the Turkish Statistical Institute reported Thursday.13
Iran’s Inflation and Soaring Prices
(source: Trading Economics)14
Published in Iran International by M. Sinaee, Iran is shown above with inflation at 52.2% and this has tripled the price of pasta making it unaffordable for lower-income families as noted below on May 6th, 2022.
(source: Iran International)15
In September 2022, the following article on Associated Press highlights the struggles in Iran.
The Iranian rial is now about 270,000 to the dollar — compared with 32,000 rials for $1 at the time of Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. That has decimated people’s salaries and savings.
Inflation has soared to 45%, the highest level since 1994, while food prices have skyrocketed by nearly 60%.16
In closing
Time will tell if the analysis above will lead to famine as noted in the Fourth Horseman of Death, but it is evident that prices are increasing due to inflation, supply, and demand. As watchmen, continue to stay alert and tell others to be prepared for what God has planned. Jesus has directed Christians to overcome the battles, persevere through preparation, and endure the hardships and trials ahead.
I’d encourage each person to dig into God’s word and learn more about what is being given to us as warning signs. The world’s changing daily and the parallels are there for us to see as God unveils Revelation to each person.
As Jesus directed John to write in the letter to Ephesus.
He who has an ear, let him hear what the Spirit says to the churches. To him who overcomes, I will grant to eat of the tree of life which is in the Paradise of God. (Revelation 2:7, NASB1995)
publicdomainpictures.net/en/view-image.php?image=365538&picture=rye-wheat-harvest-barley
https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/barley-vs-wheat#history-and-characteristics
https://biblia.com/bible/niv/deuteronomy/8/8
https://www.agflow.com/agricultural-markets/here-is-why-turkey-and-iran-grain-imports-surged-in-august-2021/
https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/turkey-brokered-grain-deal-bolsters-erdogan-putin-partnership/
https://biblehub.com/greek/2218.htm
https://www.bible.com/bible/100/REV.6.NASB1995
https://ig.ft.com/ukraine-war-food-insecurity/
USDA. (2022). Grain: World Markets and Trade. United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf
https://www.statista.com/chart/27480/projected-annual-inflation-by-country/
Ibid.
https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/inflation-cpi
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/turkeys-inflation-tops-85percent-as-erdogan-continues-to-rule-out-interest-rate-hikes.html
https://tradingeconomics.com/iran/inflation-cpi
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202205062351
https://apnews.com/article/business-lifestyle-iran-nuclear-economy-prices-cbac212486fa405bb16711712ddb278a